Charts of Interest 03192012
The BASE: 
M2: 
Velocity of M2: 
CPI: 
Loans (Individual & Business): 
SP500 Weekly: Weekly SP500
SP500 MI: SP500 MI
Mauka
It has been an abnormally long period of time since my last post because of the launch of Mauka Partners, LP – an opportunistic global macro hedge fund. Due to the potential for conflict, I will no longer be posting commentary on this blog. Thank you to all who have read and followed this blog. If you would like to know more about Mauka Partners, LP, please feel free to contact me at: nshah@maukapartners.com
From time to time I may post charts, articles, etc… that I find interesting, however, I will do so without commentary…
The Big Picture » Living In A QE World » Print - Posted by James Bianco at The Big Picture blog – http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
What Happened to Santa the Central Banker?
In the past several weeks central banks around the world have acted to provide liquidity facilities to the banking system, but have yet to substantially expand their balance sheets by announcing asset purchases. With inflation expectations elevated, those banks with an inflation or “price stability” mandate had little ammunition to engage in quantitative easing. However, with the recent collapse in commodity prices (Crude and Gold down -5% and -7% this week) and sluggish equity prices, deflationary expectations are likely to provide cover for massive global coordinated quantitative easing.
As I suggested on September 30, 2011, cyclical rallies since October 2007 have coincided with QE. On June 30, 2011, when QE2 ended, the SP500 was trading at 1320, today the market closed at 1212 (-8% lower) and while the markets have been exceptionally volatile, the market has failed to surpass the 1320 level. Until there is an announcement of further QE, and I believe that the Chairman Bernanke will, “try anything” to fight deflation, the market remains in a cyclical bear. An updated QE Chart: SPX Weekly QE Chart
Monetary Base and SPX:
Nevertheless, while liquidity facilities and quantitative easing may support a cyclical rally, with continued deleveraging and lack of growth, the negative/deflationary feedback spiral to continue.
This $SPX Daily chart shows the index within a narrowing triangle and also shows negative divergences:
via $SPX – Daily Candlesticks, Shared.
This $SPX Weekly chart shows the index within a much larger narrowing triangle:
Last, but not least, my SPX Weekly Fans, showing the continued overhead resistance and downward bias: SPX Weekly Fans
More Technicals 11232011
The SP500 Weekly Fans has been annotated to highlight those areas when it was prudent to: reduce/eliminate exposure, hedge exposure, or – if tactical and nimble – be short. Notice how price remains below the upper bound fans of moving averages and the yellow line in the indicator at the bottom of the chart remains below the white line. [Currently price is below the fans and the yellow line is below the white line.] SP500 Weekly Fans 11232011
Copper:Gold [JJC:GLD] is also displaying negative characteristics with a break of a symmetrical triangle today:
November 22, 2011 – Technical Update
In my October 15, 2011 post – when the SP500 was trading at 1224 – I said, “My expectation is that volatility will remain elevated with the market continuing higher until the end of the month [coincidentally or not toward the end of earnings being reported - a focus on the micro - and the start of the next round of geo-political "negotiations" - a focus on the macro both domestically (the "super" committee") and abroad (Europe)].” Further stating, “1280ish continues to be a target level…”
As if scripted, on October 28, 2011, the SP500 closed at 1285; and focus returned to the macro dysfunction of the domestic “super” committee and European politicians leading to the current decline with the SP500 closing today at 1188.
There was an absurdly obvious triangle pattern, which of course broke to the downside.
The market’s 200sma acted as resistance to the late October high and now that it has fallen below its 50sma, even lower resistance has been established.
My current initial downside projection is 1130-1140ish as seen in the lower bound here: SP500 Daily Channel 11222011
My indicator turned red again on November 16, 2011: SP500 MI 11222011
The weekly fans suggest considerable support between 1100-1130, but shows the considerable resistance cluster above, as well: SP500 Weekly Fans 11222011
Perceived Asymmetry is Not Necessarily Opportunity
NKY and 10YR JGB:
SPX and 10YR: